Why Boonen Will Win Paris-Roubaix (and why Cancellara will lose)

Boonen must like the view...

So everyone’s favorite Belgian, Tom Boonen, “lost” at Tour of Flanders Sunday.

Why?

Well, quite frankly, he got “popped” up the Kapelmuur by the world’s best bike racer.

I mean really, Cancellara IS the best bike racer in the world right now.

His performances at Worlds last year was the stuff of legend;  he crushed the TT and was clearly the strongest in the Road Race. He was only beaten by a Climber/TT guy, whereas Cancellara is an all-around/TT guy. And what’s Boonen? A Power/Sprinter guy.

So there’s Beans in the move Sunday with the World TT champ and a guy who won Tour du Suisse in 2009.  The same guy who rode away from him at E3 a few weeks back.

You could see the body language of Tornado Tom and tell he was struggling a bit compared to Spartacus.  He was just waiting for the move to come.  He had to be thinking it was going to come on the Muur.

When the pedals of Cancellara went about 15 rpm faster than Boonen’s, it looked like a big “jump”.  Only it was a simple acceleration.

I’ve ridden the Muur before.  The pain up that thing after climbing the others can’t be described.  And I wasn’t even racing (unless you count that 58 yr old Belgian woman with panniers full of groceries.  I beat her ass up it).

Spartacus is not invincible…

How can Boonen win?

1. Equipment: Did you see the problem Cancellara had with his bike Sunday. That could happen again and he could have a 10 second bike change vs. an 8 second bike change.  That extra 2 seconds could have won the race for Beans.  I mean really Saxo Bank, get the dude some equipment that works.  How can you allow your stuff to fail at a big race like ToFlanders?  Those wheels looked kinda beefy.  Maybe run some 20s or 22s on those hoops.  25s? Shit, we train on that stuff.
2. Family “Pride”: I’ve partied with Boonen’s cousins and family at Boonen’s fan club HQ at Paris-Roubaix on the route.  Those dude’s just won’t let Cancellara win. Trust me, they’re very “proud” of their boy and they would do ANYTHING to see Beans win.  They could be a factor.
3. Conditions: Dusty and dry conditions for Sunday. 57 and mostly sunny is what weather.com calls for.  When Cancellara hits it, he could get dust from the moto he’ll be chasing and crash!  Don’t know what the pollen count is over there but if it’s bad, maybe he’s got allergies?
4. Cobbles: Roubaix cobbles are different from Flanders “smooth” cobbles.  Did you see Boonen’s guns?  Dude has some big arms.  I’m sure those hours doing preacher curls will make the difference.  Cancellara is weak in the upper body and anyone who knows cycling knows how important big arms are.
5. 2nd Place is cool: “I battle with as much pleasure for second place as for first place. I’d rather won today and I had a good chance, but he has one of the best periods in his career. He’s a top rider.”  So maybe Beans is shooting for another 2nd and the pressure is off of him to win.  Sure, he’s Belgian’s National Treasure, but the pressure to be “regular” and 2nd is far less than the pressure to win these races…
6. Weight: Cancellara carries unnecessary weight for these races.  He had a gold charm in his pocket of Flanders for the entire race!!! No way he can do that again.  He’ll be too tired after Sunday’s effort and better remember to empty his jersey pockets this time.
7. Cancellara’s Focus on Five:  Wins at Paris-Roubaix, Milan-San Remo and Flanders are all well and good but anyone can do that. To really be considered “great”,  titles from Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Giro di Lombardia will be needed.  He’s said this is a goal of his.  Maybe he’ll lose focus this weekend and be thinking about those other, smaller, races.  He’s won Roubaix before, doubt he wants another weak-ass rock trophy.
8. Theme Song: Tommeke’s got one.  And it rocks: